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Date of Award
Master of Science (MS)
Calvin E. Harbin
In this study, the problem was to predict enrollments at Fort Hays Kansas State College from 1963 to 1970, inclusive, so as to aid in preparing for future enrollments and to provide useful information for succeeding studies of this nature. The main prediction method employed in the study was founded on enrollments in the elementary and secondary schools in the geographical area of Kansas which supplies the College with the majority of its students. The College geographical area was limited to the forty-eight counties which sent fifteen or more freshmen to the College in a recent fall semester, since this area supplied the College with about 90 percent of the freshmen class. On the basis of the most recent enrollment data for elementary and secondary schools in the 48-County Area, and established trends in retention rates for them, the number of youth who will be eligible for college each year for the next eight years was predicted. Predicted freshmen enrollments at the College were derived from these figures and from the proportions of these youth who have enrolled at Fort Hays Kansas state College in the past. The remaining minority (about 10 percent) was then added for freshmen coming from places outside the 48-County Area. Finally, the average percentage of freshmen to total student body at the College (about 30 percent) was applied to predict total student body enrollments. In addition to the pre-college enrollment prediction method used above, other prediction methods described were mathematical extrapolation, college age population, and predicted college enrollments for the state of Kansas. The findings of the study are summarized in the following table. [Table omitted; see manuscript] The results of the fourth method were considered to be the most valid. Although the fall of 1963 total enrollment at Fort Hays Kansas State College will show about the same increase as that of recent years, the next fall, 1964, will see an unprecedented increase. The following years will continue to place great stress upon facilities at the College, and in the fall of 1970, the College will enroll twice as many students as were enrolled in the fall of 1962, provided that social conditions continue as at present and the College is equipped to accommodate all prospective students.
Copyright 1963 Rose Howard King
King, Rose Howard, "A Study to Predict 01/01/1963-01/01/1970 Enrollments at Fort Hays Kansas State College" (1963). Master's Theses. 800.