Abstract
This study shows how the 2025 trade tariffs affected U.S. soybean export volumes tariff. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used to forecast exports under a no-tariff scenario by using monthly U.S. soybean export data (January 2000 to July 2025). Then Forecasted values were compared with actual 2025 export volumes. The Result shows a large and sudden export decline in 2025 that are much greater than normal seasonal patterns, suggesting a strong tariff-related disruption to U.S. soybean trade.
Faculty Advisor
Dr. Julie You Du
Department/Program
KAMS
Submission Type
in-person poster
Date
4-12-2026
Rights
Copyright the Author(s)
Recommended Citation
Liu, Haolun
(2026)
"The Impact of Trade Tariffs on U.S. Soybean Exports: A Time Series Analysis Using SARIMA Modeling,"
SACAD: Scholarly Activities: Vol. 2026, Article 101.
Available at:
https://scholars.fhsu.edu/sacad/vol2026/iss2026/101
