Abstract

The statistical relationship between elevation roughness and tornado activity is quantified using a spatial model that controls for the effect of population on the availability of reports. Across a large portion of the central Great Plains the model shows that areas with uniform elevation tend to have more tornadoes on average than areas with variable elevation. The effect amounts to a 2.3% [(1.6%, 3.0%) = 95% credible interval] increase in the rate of a tornado occurrence per meter of decrease in elevation roughness, defined as the highest minus the lowest elevation locally. The effect remains unchanged if the model is fit to the data starting with the year 1995. The effect strengthens for the set of intense tornadoes and is stronger using an alternative definition of roughness. The elevation-roughness effect appears to be strongest over Kansas, but it is statistically significant over a broad domain that extends from Texas to South Dakota. The research is important for developing a local climatological description of tornado occurrence rates across the tornado-prone region of the Great Plains.

Document Type

Article

Source Publication

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Version

Published Version

Publication Date

1-1-2016

Volume

55

Issue

4

First Page

849

Last Page

859

Rights

© 2016 American Meteorological Society (AMS). For permission to reuse any portion of this work, please contact permissions@ametsoc.org. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 U.S. Code §?107) or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC § 108) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. All AMS journals and monograph publications are registered with the Copyright Clearance Center. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement, available on the AMS website

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